MLB Opening Pitch: Expert picks, odds, predictions, preview for Thu. 4/18

Marlins vs. Cubs

A.J. Puk vs. Jameson Taillon, 7:40 p.m. ET

Pitchers should have favorable conditions at Wrigley Field on Thursday evening. It will be 52 degrees and drizzling at first pitch, with 7-8 mph winds blowing in from left-center field.

From 2021-2023, Wrigley Field had a 102 Park Factor – two percent above the MLB average run-scoring environment. I'd set this total closer to nine runs on a weather-neutral day. However, the park should play 15-20 percent below a league-average park in these chilly, rainy, and windy conditions.

As a result, I set this total at 7.26 runs and would bet Under 8 to -118, or Under 7.5 at plus money.

Additionally, while I'm not a system bettor, the conditions did trigger our Action Labs system for Wrigley Field Unders – which has generated a 15% ROI since 2005.

With the sharpening of betting markets since sports betting legalization – and increased attention paid to the effects of weather – the system is just 73-62-8 (54.1%, +$537) with a 3.8% ROI since 2019. Nevertheless, the opener is likely a half-run too high.

Jameson Taillon (projected FIP range of 4.39 to 4.59) will make his 2024 debut after nursing a back injury. He made a couple of appearances in the minors, topping out at 68 pitches.

Chicago used Hayden Wesneski for four innings (and Drew Smyly for two outs) on Wednesday, which helped their bullpen rest after a pair of extra-inning games in Arizona. I'd expect Craig Counsell to deploy his shorter-stint relievers aggressively behind Taillon, who will hope to get through four or five innings.

AJ Puk (projected FIP range of 3.96 to 4.33) has struggled with his command across three starts (14 BB, 8 K in 10 2/3 innings) after a solid spring (11 2/3 IP, 3 BB, 20 K). Despite a shaky line, pitch modeling metrics saw improvement in Puk's last outing (101 Stuff+, 101 Location+), and I do think he fits within his range of projected outcomes.

Bets: Under 8 (-118 or better or Under 7.5, +100 or better)

Diamondbacks vs. Giants

Ryne Nelson vs. Logan Webb, 9:45 p.m. ET

Over the past two seasons, Ryne Nelson has had one of the more considerable disconnects between pitch modeling metrics (101 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+ in 2023; 104 and 108 in 2024) and results (5.31 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 5.24 xFIP across 30 starts).

Nelson is flashing four above-average offerings this season (112 Stuff+ on his fastball, 114 on his changeup, 106 on his slider, and 101 on his curveball) compared to two last season (106 on the slider and 102 on the fastball).

In 2024, Nelson's four-seam velocity is up a tick (from 94.4 mph to 95.4 mph), and he introduced a cutter (20.8% usage) – which only shows a 75 Stuff+ rating despite encouraging results (.231 expected wOBA or xwOBA).

I expect Nelson to pitch towards the more optimistic end of his 2024 FIP projections (range of 4.47 to 4.84).

Logan Webb (projected FIP range of 3.28 to 3.38) is considered one of baseball's best pitchers, and his pitch modeling metrics (111 Stuff+, 109 Pitching+) have improved relative to last season (104 Stuff+, 103 Pitching+).

Webb's sinker (105 Stuff+) and changeup (112) were above-average pitches last season. The Stuff+ on his changeup has improved to 130, and the rating on his slider has improved from 91 to 108, giving Webb three above-average offerings, which he throws between 26% and 36% of the time.

I also project an advantage for the Giants' bullpen—by nearly four-tenths of a run on a season-long ERA. Arizona's best lefty reliever, Joe Manitply, is almost undoubtedly unavailable after pitching four times in six days.

However, Arizona has the superior position player group offensively and defensively. I project their offense for a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, compared to a 98 wRC+ for the Giants, and their defensive advantage adds nearly 1.5% to their chances of winning this matchup.

I projected the Snakes as +132 underdogs (43.1% implied odds). Bet Arizona on the moneyline at +143 (41.1% implied) or better.

Bets: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+143 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, April 18

• Arizona Diamondbacks (+152, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +143)
• Miami Marlins / Chicago Cubs, Under 8 (-115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -118 or 7.5, +100)