MLB Opening Pitch: Zerillo's expert picks, odds, previews for Thu. 4/25

Red Sox vs. Guardians

Thursday, April 25, 1:10 p.m. ET, NESN | Bally Sports Great Lakes | MLBN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Chase Anderson vs. Triston McKenzie

On Thursday afternoon, Progressive Field will have similar conditions (48 degrees at first pitch, 10-12 mph winds blowing in from center field) as Wednesday's matchup.

On a typical day in Cleveland, I would set this total closer to 8.5. However, the ballpark should play closer to 25% below a league-average park on Thursday, knocking my projection down to 6.73 runs. Bet Under 7.5 to -119, or play Under 7 to +100.

Both games triggered the Action Labs Pro systems for wind direction and under:

Like most of Boston's pitchers, Chase Anderson is doing some new and exciting things (+17.4% combined cutter and changeup usage). He's posted a 103 Stuff+ (122 slider, 114 changeup) in a limited sample.

As for Cleveland's starting pitcher, Triston McKenzie just doesn't seem healthy — his velocity (90.9 mph in 2024 compared to 92.4 mph in 2023) and Stuff+ (95 in 2024 compared to 100 in 2023 and 113 in 2022) are down.

McKenzie has posted an ugly 11:15 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 18 innings. His swinging strike rate is down 5% relative to his career average, and his xERA, or expected ERA, (5.68 in 2023, 4.64 in 2022) the past two seasons — albeit in a pair of brief samples — aligns well with an ERA north of five in his past eight starts.

I'd consider betting a live under after McKenzie exists this contest; he has implosion potential.

Bet: Under 7.5 (Bet to -119) or Under 7 (+100 or better)

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Padres vs. Rockies

Thursday, April 25, 3:10 p.m. ET, Padres | Rockies

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Randy Vasquez vs. Dakota Hudson

The best thing about Stuff+ is its immediate usefulness after just one start's worth of data.

Randy Vasquez posted an impressive 114 Stuff+ (up from 100 last season), including five above-average offerings, in his 2024 debut against the Blue Jays. Scouts have always loved Vasquez's curveball (113 Stuff+), but his best pitch is a slider (125 Stuff+), which he threw more in his first start for San Diego.

Vasquez mixes a pair of plus fastballs (121 Stuff+ sinker, 105 four-seamer) and completes his arsenal with an underrated changeup (113 Stuff+). The 25-year-old has the tools to become an extremely effective pitcher, and I expect Vasquez to outpitch projections (projected FIP range of 4.44 to 4.62) in 2024.

Conversely, Dakota Hudson is one of my favorite pitchers to bet against. He has performed like a replacement-level arm since 2022 (4.68 ERA, 5.32 xERA, 4.94 xFIP across 42 starts), and both projections (projected FIP range of 5.07 to 5.34) and pitching models (5.07 botERA) put his ERA projection north of five.

I set the Padres' first five innings (F5) moneyline projection at -169. Bet their first-half line to -155.

Bet: Padres F5 Moneyline (-155 or better)

Athletics vs. Yankees

Thursday, April 25, 7:05 p.m. ET, YES | NBCSCA | MLBN

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Alex Wood vs. Nestor Cortes Jr.

Nestor Cortes has returned to form in 2024 (3.41 ERA, 2.74 xERA, 3.68 xFIP, 19.5% K-BB%) after a down 2023 season (3.66 xERA, 4.84 xFIP, 17.7% K-BB%).

His underlying indicators this season are very similar to those from his breakout 2022 campaign (2.70 xERA, 3.63 xFIP, 20.3% K-BB%).

Pitching models see improved command — but lesser stuff — than the past two seasons. However, Cortes' most recent outing against the Rays (101 Stuff+) was his best of 2024, with both his cutter (111 Stuff+) and slider (108) grading out above league average.

Cortes suppresses hard contact and could outpitch his projections (projected FIP range of 3.86 to 4.19) moving forward.

Alex Wood is showing signs of degradation. His fastball has dropped by 1.5 mph in two seasons, his Stuff+ has declined from 108 to 91 and now 74 since 2022, and his K-BB% (7.6%) since the start of last season is half his career average (15.2%) — and down more than 10% vs. 2022 (18.2%).

Cortes is likely underprojected, and Wood overprojected. I set this F5 line at -260. Bet the Yankees up to -240.

Bet: Yankees F5 Moneyline (-240 or better)

Zerillo's Bets for Thursday, April 25

• Boston Red Sox / Cleveland Guardians, Under 7.5 (-105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -119 or 7, +100)
• New York Yankees F5 (-220, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -240)
• San Diego Padres F5 (-140, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -155)